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Daily Analysis – Gold Soars Past $1600, Equities Drop
Equities
Asian markets closed moderately lower, on light volume. The Kospi fell .7% weighed down by memory chip makers, as Hynix slumped 4.4%. The Shanghai Composite ticked down .1%, and the Hang Send slipped .3%, while the ASX 200 closed flat. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, contributing to the light volume.
Selling pressure picked up in Europe, as concerns over Greece remained in focus. The CAC40 sank 2%, while the FTSE and DAX both dropped 1.6%. Italian banks tumbled, and European banking sector fell 3.1%.
France's CAC40 Drops to New Low for the Year
US markets fared slightly better, but still closed down. The Dow fell 95 points to 12385, the S&P dropped 11 points to 1305.50, and the Nasdaq slid .9%.
Apple was a bright spot amongst stocks, gaining 2.4% after JPMorgan significantly raised it earnings estimate. Netflix skidded 2.8% after being downgraded by Pacific Crest Securities, and LinkedIn tumbled nearly 7% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral.
The ongoing phone hacking...
Stock and Commodities Review
Stocks
Global equities were lower on Monday as traders are worried about the financial conditions of European banks. Stress tests last week revealed that many banks may need to raise additional capital due to falling sovereign debt bond prices. Debt worries were also headlining losses in the US, traders continue to worry about the lack of political agreement for raising the US’s debt ceiling.
As such, financial stocks were the big losers today. Bank of America was lower by 2.8% while Deutsche Bank fell over 3.2%. Overall, the S&P 500 was 0.8% lower while the Dow lost 0.76%, while in Europe the CAC 40 was slightly more than 2.0% lower with the FTSE and DAX both losing 1.55%. Looking ahead, tech stocks will be in the spotlight tomorrow as bellwethers IBM and CSCO both released earnings after the close.
Commodities
With the exception of precious metals commodities were lower across the board. Agricultural and Soft commodities were especially hit hard as cotton fell 2.5%,...
China’s Economy Cools, Crude Oil Rises
China's economy cools in the June quarter, but the price of crude oil rose higher. At the moment, crude oil trades around $97.25 (up 0.4%). Other commodities rose as well. The biggest gainer in Wednesday's trading was copper, whose price increased by 1.17% to $4.437. The price of silver was 0.5% above yesterday's close at $36.28. Gold was down, however, falling 0.08% to $1,567.15, while natural gas is trading at $4.322 (down 0.03%).
China is the world's second largest economy, but also the world's largest consumer of raw materials. According to data published today, Chinese economic miracle continues, though at a bit slower pace, as China's GDP grew by 9.5% in the June quarter, down from 9.7% recorded in the March quarter. The Q2 GDP results were widely predicted by analysts. The Chinese authorities are fighting hard to prevent China's economy from overheating, as inflation grew in preceding months. The challenge for the Chinese officials now is to make sure the...
Suncor Energy – Bull of the Day
In our opinion, Suncor Energy (SU) is one of the best positioned companies to benefit from the oil price recovery over the next several years. The company's asset base includes substantial conventional reserves and production at offshore Eastern Canada and in the North Sea, which generate strong margins and should provide free cash flow to fund future oil sands expansion.
With a large portfolio of growth opportunities, unique asset base and high return potential in the long run, the company has a competitive edge over its peers. We are also encouraged by Suncor's improving oil sands operational performance and execution of its cost saving initiatives. The company is also getting back on track following its merger with Petro-Canada.
Additionally, given our bullish outlook for the medium-term oil price scenario, we think the company is nicely positioned to benefit from its leverage to commodity prices. Considering these factors, we believe Suncor is well positioned going forward and consider it an attractive investment.
Stocks Slammed As Italy Takes Center Stage
A developing sovereign debt crisis in Italy and widening bond yields in Europe spooked investors on Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 151 points to 12,506. The widely watched blue-chip traded in a range between 12,470 and 12,656.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) plunged 1.81% to $131.97. Volume was heavier than normal with around 187.7 million SPY shares trading hands compared to a 3-month daily average of 175.7 million.
The PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the performance of the Nasdaq 100, shed 1.81% to close at $57.96. The QQQ is up 6.43% in 2011.
Gold surged on the day as nervous investors rushed into the asset class. COMEX gold futures rose 0.81% to $1,554.10. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) added 0.91% to $151.61.
Crude oil fell on concerns over the state of the global recovery. NYMEX crude futures lost 1.05% to $95.19. The United States Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) fell 1.35% to $37.29.
Treasuries soared...
Goldman: Tight Supply to Push Up Oil Prices
Oil supply will be “critically tight” in 2012 and prices are likely to surpass their recent highs as spare production capacity and inventories are “effectively exhausted,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note Thursday.
Goldman also reiterated a recommendation that its clients buy some forward oil contracts now, before prices move higher later.
This advice underlines the influential bank’s skepticism at the ability of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to meet rising demand. It also sets it at odds with the view of other important players in the oil market, notably the International Energy Agency.
Goldman said it expects the expanding global economy to drive oil-demand growth that outstrips production growth, meaning, “the oil market continues to draw on inventories and OPEC spare capacity in order to balance.”
“It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices,” Goldman said. “We recommend opening a long position in the ICE Brent December...
This Week’s USD/CAD Trading Plan Focused Around Following Oil and Equities...
We want to try and create a trading plan using the recent moves in oil price as an indication for what may happen with the USD/CAD. The bias in this scenario is that oil prices will not be able to maintain their recent rally, and may fall down from the $95 level. If this happens, and we have a more general move toward caution in the equities market, then the USD/CAD has a chance to retrace its strong move in last week’s trading.
The basics of the set-up are as follows:
Trigger: Oil price test and failure at $95 level, risk appetite swings towards caution.
Scenario 1: Oil price fall back down to $90. This would require risk aversion in the markets. This could come from weaker equities as a result of poor fundamentals, or more dovish ECB, though key events in the calendar weigh more towards the second half of the week.
While US manufacturing data was stronger than expected, global manufacturing was still...
Northern Oil and Gas Announces Recent Drilling and Completion Activity
Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE: NOG) today announced recent completion results and current drilling activity.
Northern Oil participated in the Mustang #1-22H, a successful Bakken test well operated by Slawson Exploration in Mountrail County, North Dakota. Northern Oil controls a 39.56% working interest in the well, which had an initial production rate of 1,829 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD"). Northern Oil's BOPD rates do not take into account flared natural gas production. The well had an initial tubing pressure of 1,900 psi on an 8/64th choke.
In an important extensional discovery into eastern Montana, Northern Oil participated in the Tveit 25-36 #1H, a successful Bakken test well operated by URSA Resources in Richland County, Montana. Northern Oil controls a 39.54% working interest in the well, which had an initial production rate of 501 BOPD.
Northern Oil recently participated in the Alamo #2-19-18H, a successful Bakken test well operated by Slawson Exploration in Mountrail County, North Dakota. Northern Oil controls a 29.98% working...
Daily Analysis – Global Markets End Mixed, Silver Hits New Record High
Equities
Asian markets ended Monday mixed following the Easter holiday. The Nikkei ended down .1%, while the Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.5%. In Korea, the Kospi rose .8%. Markets in Hong Kong and Australia were closed for the holidays.
In Europe, the major indexes ended mostly higher, as the Dax gained .6% and the CAC40 rose .4%. Chemical company AkzoNobel gained 4% on strong earnings. The FTSE lagged behind, shedding .1%.
US markets traded in a narrow range and also ended mixed. The Dow slipped 26 points to 12480, while the Nasdaq gained .2%.
Slot-machine maker IGT jumped 9.3% on surprisingly strong earnings and Sohu.com rallied 8.8% after profits rose 34%.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bonds rose slightly, with 10-year notes up 8/32 to yield 3.36%, and 30-year notes up 4/32 to yield 4.46%. A Chinese Central Bank official warned that China must be careful of rising US treasury rates.
US crude ended down fractionally in choppy trading, closing at 112.22. Gold rallied 6.60 to close at 1510.40, and...
